Iraq may pass a security pact letting US stay till 2011

Nov. 17: U.S. Ambassador to Iraq, Ryan Crocker, left, and Iraqi FM Hoshyar Zebar shake hands after a signing ceremony for U.S.-Iraq security pact.

BAGHDAD — Iraqi lawmakers Monday began debate over a pact with the United States that will allow U.S. forces to remain for three more years, while an Iranian official close to that country's leadership praised the Iraqi Cabinet for approving the deal.

The comments from Iran's judiciary chief marked the first time that the deal has met with clear-cut approval in neighboring Iran. Meanwhile, Syria, target of a deadly cross-border raid by U.S. forces in recent weeks, criticized the deal as virtual surrender to America.

More than two-thirds of the 275-seat legislature attended Monday's session, raising confidence that parliament will be able to muster a quorum for the Nov. 24 vote. The session ended after the agreement's text was read to lawmakers, the first step to adopt legislation.

Lawmakers are expected to meet again on Tuesday.

The proposed Status of Forces Agreement not only sets a date for American troop withdrawal - 2011 - but also puts new restrictions on US combat operations in Iraq starting on January 1 and requires a military pullback from urban areas by June 30. The pact goes before parliament in a week or so.

For the deal to go as planned, the security situation must keep improving.

The U.S. signed similar security pacts with Germany and Japan after World War II, and South Korea after the conflict there. In each case a sizeable contingent of U.S. troops remains. Today, there are 56,200 U.S. servicemembers in Germany, 33,100 in Japan and 26,300 in South Korea.

Can Obama change what is being done now, when he becomes President?

The pact can be changed if either President-elect Barack Obama, who takes office Jan. 20, or the Iraqis want to alter it. Each side has the right to repeal the agreement after giving one year's notice, a senior Iraqi lawmaker has said.

Obama Vows to Close Guantanamo

In his first television interview since the election, President-elect Barack Obama said Sunday he plans to close the US military prison at Guantanamo Bay and rebuild the nation’s moral stature. His comments came in an interview with Steve Kroft on 60 Minutes.

Steve Kroft: “There are a number of different things that you could do early on pertaining to executive orders.”

Barack Obama: “Right.”

Kroft: “One of them is to shut down Guantanamo Bay. Another is to change interrogation methods that are used by US troops. Are those things that you plan to take early action on?”

Obama: “Yes. I have said repeatedly that I intend to close Guantanamo, and I will follow through on that. I have said repeatedly that America doesn’t torture, and I’m going to make sure that we don’t torture. Those are part and parcel of an effort to regain America’s moral stature in the world.”


Syrian minister criticizes Iraq-U.S. security pact

Syria's information minister says the security pact with the U.S. approved by the Iraqi Cabinet amounts to an "award to the occupiers" of Iraq.

After months of haggling, the Iraqi Cabinet on Sunday approved the pact that would keep U.S. troops in Iraq for three more years. The deal is to go before the Iraqi parliament for final approval later in November.

Syria's information minister, Mohsen Bilal, told the AP on Monday that rather than rewarding the U.S. occupiers with the pact, Iraqis should get an apology from Washington for the damage done to their country.

Iraqi neighbors and U.S. adversaries Iran and Syria have opposed the pact in the past and say an immediate withdrawal of U.S. forces would be the best solution.

Last month, the U.S. launched a cross-border assault against a Syrian village allegedly used to smuggle foreign fighters into Iraq. The deal contains conditions that the U.S. not use Iraqi land to launch attacks against any neighboring country.

The proposed Status of Forces Agreement not only sets a date for American troop withdrawal - 2011 - but also puts new restrictions on US combat operations in Iraq starting on January 1 and requires a military pullback from urban areas by June 30. The pact goes before parliament in a week or so.

Internal Iraqi opposition

The 30-strong Sadrist bloc will move heaven and Earth - including massive nationwide protests - to bloc the pact in the Iraqi National Assembly.

Sadrist spokesman Ahmed al-Masoudi stressed this Sunday thatthe pact "did not mean anything" and "hands Iraq over on a golden platter and for an indefinite period".

Masoudi is right on the money when he says the overwhelming majority of popular opinion is against it and the Sadrists and many Sunni parties insist a popular referendum to approve it is essential.

Shi'ite leader Muqtada al-Sadr's position is and has always been "end the occupation now". That happens to be the same view from Tehran: the pact further extends Iraq's agony as an American colony.


Iran's unusual positive stance

Iranian state TV has been spinning it as a victory for the Maliki government - stressing the US was forced to make concessions (in fact Maliki did not extract all the concessions he wanted in terms of prosecuting US troops for crimes in Iraq . The pact calls for joint panels of U.S. and Iraqi judges to try cases involving serious crimes committed by off-duty U.S. servicemembers in Iraq. So while Iraqi judges would be involved, the U.S. would not cede full jurisdiction to them. Second, it is almost unheard of for a U.S. troop to be off duty and off base in Iraq.).

However, last week, a spokesman for the Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani in Iraq said he would "directly intervene" if he felt the pact was against Iraqi sovereignty.


Will Iran Move in?

"Many Iraqis suspect that Iran wants to annex southern Iraq, which is over 80 percent Shia, has the major Shia holy places and oil fields that would increase Iranian exports by over 50 percent."

Refrences

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/2008-11-17-syria-iraq-us_N.htm#uslPageReturn

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,453029,00.html

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/2008-11-16-iraqdealqna_N.htm
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hwK_CSpBxsNuVUEaDuOwmSSCiqGwD94GPUGG0

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/JK18Ak01.html

The Syrian Border Crisis

The Syrian Border Crisis

Background

On October 26th 2008 the United States had an air strike on the Syrian border city of Abu Kamal. According to the United States, the attack killed an al-Qaeda leader responsible for smuggling combatants over the border.

Surprise to Syria, especially after talks with Rice

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice met in New York with her Syrian counterpart, Walid Moalem, in the highest-level talks between the two nations since 2005. "She sat with us and said the United States wants to engage with Syria, wants to re-evaluate its relationship," Syria's ambassador to Washington, Imad Moustapha, told NEWSWEEK. "And suddenly this raid happens out of the blue."

General Petraeus wanted to talk prior with Syria but White House held him back

A senior military officer told NEWSWEEK that the United States conveyed its message about Abu Ghadiyah to Syria through other countries in the region beginning early this year. Simultaneously, said the officer, who did not want to be named discussing sensitive issues, Petraeus requested permission from the Pentagon to travel to Damascus and meet directly with Syrian leaders. According to the officer, though, "so far the answer has been 'Not yet. Now is not the time'." All three agencies declined requests for comment.
Both Syria and Iraq ( and North Korea) denounced the attacks

Syria condemned the US intervention and demanded an apology from Washington. Damascus also sent extra troops to the border region. Iraq equally condemned the US attack, but it also said Syria should take stronger measures against organizations that aim to harm Iraqis.

North Korea has denounced the United States for its recent deadly raid inside Syria.

The North's Foreign Ministry says the attack was "an unpardonable inhuman criminal act as it is ... state terrorism committed under the pretext of 'anti-terrorism war.'"

The real questions as proposed by Fred Kaplan of Slate magazine

What is the tactical benefit of killing him and maybe taking out this particular safe house—to what extent will the act shock or foil the enemy, or cut down the flow of foreign fighters and arms? On the other hand, what is the strategic cost of violating international law, alienating the regional powers, and impeding a political settlement of the war in Iraq?

The intelligence isn't in yet, but early indications are that the first answer is "Not much" and the second is "Quite a lot."

Shuffling Troops

Iraq sends police to guard Syrian border
Iraq is sending police reinforcements to the border with Syria. The rapid reaction force is aimed at preventing al-Qaeda combatants from penetrating Iraq.

Meanwhile the Syrians are moving away from that border

The Syrian TV station Dunia reported Thursday that the country is reducing its troops and dismantling guard posts on its border with Iraq. The move came in response to a deadly U.S. cross-border raid Sunday that targeted an al-Qaida in Iraq figure who operated a network that smuggled fighters into Iraq. Meanwhile, tens of thousands of Syrians protested the raid Thursday in Damascus, and hundreds of Syrian riot police formed a protective ring around the closed U.S. Embassy. But the flag-waving crowds dispersed peacefully after a couple of hours.

The Syrians are beefing up borders with Lebanon

The Syrian Army has deployed more troops along Lebanon's northern border, according to Lebanese Army sources, amid claims that Damascus is redoubling efforts to "combat smuggling."

Reports that Damascus was beefing up its troop strength along the Lebanese border coincide with unconfirmed reports by the private Syrian Dunia satellite TV network that Syrian border patrol forces were being withdrawn from the notoriously porous border with Iraq. Dunia TV showed pictures of what it claimed were Syrian forces being withdrawn from the Iraqi border.

Iraq was getting along with Syria

Iraqi President Jalal Talabani also told President Bush just last month that Syria was no longer much of a problem.

Syria has asked Iraq for "clarifications" over the recent raid inside Syrian territory.

Deputy Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal al Miqdad indicated, this morning, that Syria has asked Iraq for "clarifications" over the recent raid inside Syrian territory. He says we are going to re-examine what's going on with Iraq in light of the official responses we're getting from the Iraqi side, following our requests to the United Nations for clarifications from Iraq.

Syrians say the Oct. 26 U.S. commando raid across its border targeting a Qaeda smuggler came as a surprise, ruining what appeared to be a thaw in relations between the two countries. Just two months ago, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice met in New York with her Syrian counterpart, Walid Moalem, in the highest-level talks between the two nations since 2005. "She sat with us and said the United States wants to engage with Syria, wants to re-evaluate its relationship," Syria's ambassador to Washington, Imad Moustapha, told NEWSWEEK. "And suddenly this raid happens out of the blue."

But government documents and a recent comment by Commander of U.S. Central Command Gen. David Petraeus suggest the United States had been signaling its frustration with Syria over border issues for some time. Counterterrorism sources say troops taking part in the raid killed a senior Qaeda operative known as Abu Ghadiyah, who allegedly helped smuggle scores of fighters into Iraq for suicide attacks and other operations. Three weeks ago at a meeting of the Association of the U.S. Army, Petraeus said the Abu Ghadiyah problem had been raised often with Damascus. "We have communicated that to them through interlocutors," he said, describing Abu Ghadiyah as a "major foreign fighter facilitator" operating in Syria with "varying degrees of freedom at different times."

Syria has ordered the closure of the American School and the US cultural centre in Damascus


Ref:

Cooperation Hits a Snag

By Dan Ephron and Mark Hosenball | NEWSWEEK

Published Nov 1, 2008

From the magazine issue dated Nov 10, 2008

More Syrian Troops Deploy Along Lebanese Border By Edward Yeranian
Cairo
31 October 2008

High Risk, Limited PayoffIn Syria, a dangerous new escalation of the war on terror.By Fred KaplanPosted Thursday, :Oct. 30, 2008, at 5:59 PM ET Slate online http://www.slate.com/id/2203243/

International Herald Tribune
NKorea condemns US for attack in Syria
The Associated Press
Thursday, October 30, 2008
http://www.iht.com/bin/printfriendly.php?id=17374924